Re: [SystemSafety] Swiss train crash

From: Peter Bishop < >
Date: Tue, 30 Jul 2013 12:21:15 +0100


Perhaps this cluster is not so surprising after all.

A quick check of past train accident rates suggest 3-5 per year in Europe.
i.e. P_acc= 0.25 to 0.42 per month

So the prob of seeing 3 in a month are p_acc**3 i.e. 0.016 to 0.076

Or equivalently we expect to see a triple accident month every ~ 1 to 6 years

Peter Bishop

M Mencke wrote:
> What is going on?
>
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23494203
>
> At least 35 people have been injured, five of them seriously, in a
> collision between two trains in western Switzerland.
>
> The crash happened in Granges-pres-Marnand in Vaud canton, about 50km
> (30 miles) south-west of the capital, Bern.
>
> The regional trains collided head-on in the early evening.
>
> The driver of one of the trains died in the incident and his body was
> recovered from the wreckage early on Tuesday morning, Swiss police said.
>
>
>
>
>
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>
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systemsafety_at_xxxxxx Received on Tue Jul 30 2013 - 13:21:34 CEST

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