Re: [SystemSafety] Swiss train crash

From: David Haworth < >
Date: Tue, 30 Jul 2013 13:47:56 +0200


Peter,

shouldn't that be "every ~ 6 to 10 years" ?

Dave

On 2013-07-30 12:21:15 +0100, Peter Bishop wrote:
> Perhaps this cluster is not so surprising after all.
>
> A quick check of past train accident rates
> suggest 3-5 per year in Europe.
> i.e. P_acc= 0.25 to 0.42 per month
>
> So the prob of seeing 3 in a month are p_acc**3
> i.e. 0.016 to 0.076
>
> Or equivalently we expect to see a triple accident month
> every ~ 1 to 6 years
>
> Peter Bishop
>
> M Mencke wrote:
> >What is going on?
> >
> >http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23494203
> >
> >At least 35 people have been injured, five of them seriously, in a
> >collision between two trains in western Switzerland.
> >
> >The crash happened in Granges-pres-Marnand in Vaud canton, about
> >50km (30 miles) south-west of the capital, Bern.
> >
> >The regional trains collided head-on in the early evening.
> >
> >The driver of one of the trains died in the incident and his body
> >was recovered from the wreckage early on Tuesday morning, Swiss
> >police said.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >
> >_______________________________________________
> >The System Safety Mailing List
> >systemsafety_at_xxxxxx >
> _______________________________________________
> The System Safety Mailing List
> systemsafety_at_xxxxxx

-- 
David Haworth B.Sc.(Hons.), OS Kernel Developer         Tel: +49 9131 7701-6154
david.haworth_at_xxxxxx
Elektrobit Automotive GmbH           Am Wolfsmantel 46, 91058 Erlangen, Germany
Geschäftsführer: Alexander Kocher, Gregor Zink       Amtsgericht Fürth HRB 4886


----------------------------------------------------------------
Please note: This e-mail may contain confidential information
intended solely for the addressee. If you have received this
e-mail in error, please do not disclose it to anyone, notify
the sender promptly, and delete the message from your system.
Thank you.

_______________________________________________
The System Safety Mailing List
systemsafety_at_xxxxxx
Received on Tue Jul 30 2013 - 13:48:39 CEST

This archive was generated by hypermail 2.3.0 : Fri Feb 22 2019 - 15:17:06 CET