Re: [SystemSafety] Swiss train crash

From: Peter Bishop < >
Date: Tue, 30 Jul 2013 13:58:53 +0100


No I think the numbers are about right.

The probability is *per month*, so the interval in years is 1/(12*prob_per_month)

More accurate figures would be 1.1 years to 5.3 years

But this could be false precision as the accident data is fairly limited and includes accident we might want to discount (like terrorism, cars on rail crossings, etc).

Peter

On 30 July 2013 12:47, David Haworth <david.haworth_at_xxxxxx

> Peter,
>
> shouldn't that be "every ~ 6 to 10 years" ?
>
> Dave
>
> On 2013-07-30 12:21:15 +0100, Peter Bishop wrote:
> > Perhaps this cluster is not so surprising after all.
> >
> > A quick check of past train accident rates
> > suggest 3-5 per year in Europe.
> > i.e. P_acc= 0.25 to 0.42 per month
> >
> > So the prob of seeing 3 in a month are p_acc**3
> > i.e. 0.016 to 0.076
> >
> > Or equivalently we expect to see a triple accident month
> > every ~ 1 to 6 years
> >
> > Peter Bishop
> >
> > M Mencke wrote:
> > >What is going on?
> > >
> > >http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23494203
> > >
> > >At least 35 people have been injured, five of them seriously, in a
> > >collision between two trains in western Switzerland.
> > >
> > >The crash happened in Granges-pres-Marnand in Vaud canton, about
> > >50km (30 miles) south-west of the capital, Bern.
> > >
> > >The regional trains collided head-on in the early evening.
> > >
> > >The driver of one of the trains died in the incident and his body
> > >was recovered from the wreckage early on Tuesday morning, Swiss
> > >police said.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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systemsafety_at_xxxxxx Received on Tue Jul 30 2013 - 14:59:02 CEST

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