Re: [SystemSafety] MH370

From: Peter Bernard Ladkin < >
Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2014 08:25:49 +0100


On 2014-03-11 00:28 , Matthew Squair wrote:
> Sure, but over the years there have also been a number of lost at sea accidents where either the FDR
> or CVR were not recovered or were recovered damaged.

Let me contradict that flatly.

In the last two decades, there has not been a single accident in which the aircraft ditched into ocean and the FDR was not recovered. Further, there has been none in which more FDR data would have helped but was not available. In contrast, there have been plenty in which the hull needed to be inspected to determine probable cause.

The proposal "solves" a "problem" that hasn't existed for two decades.

Please also note that there have been only 9 oceanic accidents in the last ten years, and 24 such accidents, almost three times as many, in the ten years before that. A clear trend, in common with the general accident statistics.

The list is, including commuter airlines:

Ethiopian, off Beirut, 25 Jan 2010
Yemenia, off Cormoros, 30 June 2009
AF, mid-Atlantic, 1 June 2009
Transaven, off Venezuela, 4 Jan 2008 (a Let L-410) Adam Air, off Indonesia, 1 Jan 2007
Armavia, off Sochi, 3 May 2006
Logan Air, off Mull of Kintyre, Scotland, 15 March 2005 Tuninter, Mediterranean, 6 August 2005
Chalks Ocean Airways, off Florida, 19 December 2005 (a Grumman Widgeon) Flash Air Lines, Red Sea, 3 Jan 2004
Georgian Express, Lake eries 17 Jan 2004 China Norther, in Dalian Bay, 7 May 2002 Flightline, off Spain, 10 October 2001 (a Fairchild Merlin) Kenya Airways, off Ivory Coast, 20 Jan 2000 Alaska Airlines, off Southern California, 31 June 2000 Gulf Air, off Bahrain, 23 August 2000
Aristo, off Libya, 13 Jan 2000 (a Shorts) Egyptair, Atlantic off N. America, 31 October 1999 Van Air, Vanuatu, 8 May 1999 (a Twin Otter) Swissair, off Halifax, Novy Scotia, 2 Sep 1998 Formosa, off Taiwan, 18 March 1998 (a Saab 340) Southern Air, a strait in NZ, 19 August 1998 (a C402C) Proteus, France, 20 July 1998 (A Beech 1900) Silk Air, Indonesia, 19 Dec 1997
Air Sunshine, US Virgin Islands, 10 Feb 1997 (a C402C) Cubana, off Cuba, 11 July 1997 (a A-24RV) Ethiopian, off Mozambique, 23 November 1996 (ditched) Valujet, Florida Everglades, 11 May 1996 TWA, off Long Harbour, NY, 17 July 1996
Aeroperu, off Peru, 2 October 1996
Mustique, off Barbados, 8 Jan 1996 (a B-N Islander) Birgenair, off Dominican Republic, 6 Feb 1996 Formosa, off Taiwan, 5 April 1996 (a Dornier 228)

PBL Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319 www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de



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