Re: [SystemSafety] MH370

From: Matthew Squair < >
Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2014 20:50:08 +1100


Yep, like an EPIRB. But if you're going to do that, well memory is cheap.

Matthew Squair

MIEAust, CPEng
Mob: +61 488770655
Email; Mattsquair_at_xxxxxx
Web: http://criticaluncertainties.com

On 11 Mar 2014, at 8:13 pm, Chris Hills <safetyyork_at_xxxxxx

Actually you don't need a detachable FDR or CVR. All you need is a detachable simple distress beacon with a life of 48 hours. If you can find that it would narrow the search field to say, a 10 mile radius, rather than thousands of square miles. Then you can find the wreckage and the black boxes far faster.

A small distress beacon would be smaller in size, mass and complexity, very cheap (comparatively) and easier to mount.

Regards

   Chris

*From:* systemsafety-bounces_at_xxxxxx mailto:systemsafety-bounces_at_xxxxxx
*On Behalf Of *Matthew Squair
*Sent:* 10 March 2014 23:28
*To:* Peter Bernard Ladkin
*Cc:* systemsafety_at_xxxxxx *Subject:* Re: [SystemSafety] MH370

Sure, but over the years there have also been a number of lost at sea accidents where either the FDR or CVR were not recovered or were recovered damaged. Dave Warren's original proposal was aimed squarely at that problem and was for a foam cored blister pack with a simple wire spool recorder and die pack, the concept being that it would be mounted on the external fuselage (around the tail) and popped off in an explosion or impact induced hull over-pressure.

On Tue, Mar 11, 2014 at 9:07 AM, Peter Bernard Ladkin < ladkin_at_xxxxxx

> On 10 Mar 2014, at 22:17, Matthew Squair <mattsquair_at_xxxxxx
>
> Absolutely, nothing is perfect. But would I prefer an alternate to months
of trawling the abyssal plain with a side scanning sonar? You betcha. Especially if it's a very, very cheap alternative.

In the last twenty years, there are just two cases of lost-at-sea I can think of in which evidence from the hull was *not* required in addition to FDR data to determine cause. There are five cases in which in-air disintegration or burning, which are not identifiable from FDR data, initiated the hull loss, and there is one further case in which physical evidence was required to show there was no anomaly (that it was, in effect, murder/suicide). Two against six isn't a persuasive ratio.

I can go through the records to make this definitive rather than "I can think of", if necessary.

The result of a cost-benefit analysis, even for the past, let alone for conceivable future cases, is not at all evident to me.

PBL Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, University of Bielefeld and Causalis Limited

-- 


*Matthew Squair*
MIEAust CPEng Mob: +61 488770655 Email: MattSquair_at_xxxxxx Website: www.criticaluncertainties.com <http://criticaluncertainties.com/> _______________________________________________ The System Safety Mailing List systemsafety_at_xxxxxx
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