Re: [SystemSafety] Spike or No Spike in US Road Accidents after 9/11?

From: SPRIGGS, John J < >
Date: Thu, 27 Nov 2014 09:00:08 +0000


Personally, I would have thought that initially there would be a drop-off in long distance road traffic too, as people 'hunker down' at home for a while. The projected rise in traffic, and hence accident rate, should therefore appear in the 2002 statistics as people start ravelling again (pure supposition on my part - I have not looked).

John

-----Original Message-----
Sent: 27 November 2014 06:47
To: The System Safety List
Subject: [SystemSafety] Spike or No Spike in US Road Accidents after 9/11?

After the World Trade Center attacks on 11 September 2001, it was reported that many people in the US were driving long distances rather than flying because of concerns about commercial aviation security. And I recall William Safire pointing to the irony of this - one is much more likely to die through road traffic accident (the book chapter by Leonard Evans which I have referenced includes a number of comparisons).

So I was curious whether this effect appeared in the statistics. It doesn't appear in a comparison of the annual statistics for 2000 and 2001: http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/TSF2000.pdf http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/TSF2001.pdf There are of course confounding factors.

Does anyone know of an analysis which shows a "9/11 effect" on US road accident statistics?

PBL Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319 www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de



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