Re: [SystemSafety] NTSB report on Boeing 787 APU battery fire at Boston Logan

From: Peter Bishop < >
Date: Fri, 05 Dec 2014 09:56:58 +0000


John McDermid gave an interesting IET keynote on "Probative Blindness" (about people ignoring or not seeking contrary evidence) which could well apply in this particular case. See:

http://www-users.cs.york.ac.uk/~rda/IET_probative.pdf

Peter Bishop, Adelard

Matthew Squair wrote:
> As you both point out there's plenty of information out there. The
> fruitful question IMO is what were the organisational, regulatory and
> cognitive factors were at work to make them disregard it? Plus they (the
> 787 team) and the FAA completely misunderstood the value and limitations
> of testing in their specific context.
>
> I wrote a bit on where I thought they'd lost the plot when the interim
> report came out. In fact I wrote quite a bit, as it's an excellent case
> study of experimenters regress amongst other things, so perhaps we
> should really thank the players*?
>
> http://criticaluncertainties.com/2013/02/12/boeings-lithium-woes-pt-ii/#more-6333.
>
> *As no one was hurt.
>
>
> Matthew Squair
>
> MIEAust, CPEng
> Mob: +61 488770655
> Web: http://criticaluncertainties.com
>
> On 5 Dec 2014, at 3:11 am, Peter Bernard Ladkin
>

>>
>>
>> On 2014-12-04 16:44 , Mike Ellims wrote:
>>> So could the assumption have been validated as it should have been?
>>>
>>> Simplest way to test this is to do a literature search.
>>
>> You didn't mention Linden's Handbook of Batteries, ed. Reddy, 
>> McGraw-Hill, 4th Edition 2011, Ist
>> edition 1984. Then there's Ley and Bro, Battery Hazards and Accident 
>> Prevention, Springer, 1994.
>> Then there is Daniel and Besenhard, Handbook of Battery Materials, 
>> Wiley VCH, 2nd edition 2011,
>> first edition 1999. As far as I can tell, they are required items on 
>> the bookshelf of any battery
>> person and they are on ours too. All of them deal with the issue of 
>> thermal runaway of lithium
>> batteries, and the first two with how this is affected by design. Then 
>> there are the many annual
>> conferences on batteries.
>>
>> Or you can simply ask people who know. Like, any one of those authors 
>> of the thousands of papers,
>> some of whom are very distinguished scientists indeed, as well as 
>> being well-known.
>>
>> PBL
>>
>> Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of 
>> Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
>> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de 
>> <http://www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de>
>>
>>
>>
>>
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Peter Bishop
Chief Scientist
Adelard LLP
Exmouth House, 3-11 Pine Street, London,EC1R 0JH
http://www.adelard.com
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Received on Fri Dec 05 2014 - 10:57:31 CET

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