Re: [SystemSafety] Shark!

From: Peter Bishop < >
Date: Thu, 09 Jul 2015 16:00:40 +0100


Yes indeed,

The problem with quoting global numbers is that they cannot be compared. What I would be interested in knowing is how likely it is that I will die if:

  1. I go for a swim
  2. sit on a chair

Then I could make a rational choice between these two options.

Peter Bishop
Adelard

John Downer wrote:

> With all respect to the zoo, I'm guessing that if billions of people sat 
> on sharks every day then the stats would be somewhat different. 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> <mailto:James.Inge782_at_xxxxxx
> 

>> My local zoo has a poster in its aquarium, quoting a statistic about
>> fatal shark attacks, compared to deaths caused by chairs. I can’t
>> remember the precise numbers, but it is something like half a dozen
>> shark related deaths annually, compared to hundreds caused by
>> homicidal furniture. The International Shark Attack File quotes 497
>> confirmed fatal shark attacks worldwide, over the last 435 years.
>>
>>
>>
>> Now that Hollywood has successfully warned the world about sharks, how
>> can we persuade them to do such a sterling effort to get the word out
>> about seating? ;-)
>>
>>
>>
>> More fun shark attack statistics at
>> http://www.flmnh.ufl.edu/fish/sharks/isaf/geomaps.htm
>>
>>
>>
>> James.
>>
>>
>>
>> Behalf Of *Les Chambers
>> *Sent:* 08 July 2015 06:28
>> *Subject:* [SystemSafety] Shark!
>>
>>
>>
>> Tis the 40th anniversary of the movie Jaws. The script writer is
>> giving interviews. It turns out the movie made many people
>> shark-risk-aware. Some didn't go near a swimming pool for years after.
>> But one comment resonated. Words to the effect of:
>>
>> "Why did those victims go into the water? Couldn't they hear the music?"
>>
>> More support for the fundamental axiom of hazard analysis:
>>
>> "Some things only become clear, later on."
>>
>> Cheers
>>
>> Les
>>
>>
>>
>> -------------------------------------------------
>> Les Chambers
>> Director
>> Chambers & Associates Pty Ltd
>> www.chambers.com.au <http://www.chambers.com.au>
>>
>> Blog: www.systemsengineeringblog.com
>> <http://www.systemsengineeringblog.com/>
>>
>> Twitter: @ChambersLes <http://www.twitter.com/chambersles>
>> M: 0412 648 992
>> Intl M: +61 412 648 992
>> Ph: +61 7 3870 4199
>> Fax: +61 7 3870 4220
>> -------------------------------------------------
>>
>>
>>
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-- 

Peter Bishop
Chief Scientist
Adelard LLP
Exmouth House, 3-11 Pine Street, London,EC1R 0JH
http://www.adelard.com
Recep:  +44-(0)20-7832 5850
Direct: +44-(0)20-7832 5855
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Received on Thu Jul 09 2015 - 21:49:50 CEST

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