Re: [SystemSafety] Notions of Risk

From: Martyn Thomas < >
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 2016 10:28:25 +0000

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I agree that a frequentist probability approach to security is inappropriate and that uncertainty is a better word. The likelihood that a security vulnerability will be exploited is not stochastic, but it makes good sense to talk about relative likelihoods (if there is a mass escape from your neighbouring prison then it is more likely that someone will try to break into your house).

Martyn

On 13/01/2016 06:12, Peter Bernard Ladkin wrote:
> There is some move to consider safety and security together in engineered systems and as a result
> I have come across - again - various informal notions of risk. I
thought it worth while to perform
> a quick (but incomplete) survey of current standards and to try to
elucidate the components
> currently thought to go together to constitute risk.
> http://www.abnormaldistribution.org/2016/01/12/risk/
>
> In a nutshell, the project-management idea of risk as the chance that
things will go badly wrong
> is on the way out (it's been replaced in ISO/IEC Guide 73). That's
something to applaud, in my
> view. But there are often things wrong with the probability/likelihood
component of our favored
> notion, and visible suggestions it be generalised into something like
a measure of uncertainty.
>
> PBL
>
> Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of
Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
> Je suis Charlie
> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319 www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> The System Safety Mailing List
> systemsafety_at_xxxxxx >

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systemsafety_at_xxxxxx Received on Wed Jan 13 2016 - 11:28:35 CET

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