Re: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

From: Mike Ellims < >
Date: Thu, 14 Apr 2016 23:02:23 +0100


I've download the report, but so far have only looked at the article attached and a similar one on IEEE Spectrum.  

This is possibly a straw man in some regards, e.g. Google has a fleet of vehicles that have driven 1.3 million miles since 2009, however the company claims to simulate 3 million miles of driving per day based in the information gathered (e.g. 200,000 stop signs, and 600,000 traffic lights, 180 million vehicles and one rogue duck) and, I assume, the information they have collected worldwide via StreetView. I always wondered why they had StreetView.  

Incidentally Google do some very interesting stuff on software testing.  

Likewise Tesla is conducting a large scale experiment (you can choose to participate) with its Autopilot system on 50,000+ vehicles; 100 million miles is only 2000 miles per vehicle. Tesla gives figures for 2 Billion miles driven total with 1 billion this year and 47 million miles (since 14 October 2015 ) on Autopilot - which I understand records and reports performance.  

To the best of my knowledge Google and Tesla have one fender-bender each to date. Tesla's being more interesting as it was with road works on a Autobahn. Specifically with the stand out reflectors sometimes used.  

Assuming that functionality is added incrementally then volume of testing probably isn't actually an issue. What may be an issue is that testing captures every possible situation. However most drivers can't cope with every possible situation anyway so that may be moot.  

And yes my car has ABS, ESP and traction control; all examples of existing autonomous driving systems.    

From: systemsafety
[mailto:systemsafety-bounces_at_xxxxxx Robert Schaefer
Sent: 14 April 2016 20:52
To: The System Safety List
Subject: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?  

http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/04/car-makers-cant-drive-their-way-to-safet y-with-self-driving-cars/

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1478.html  

Question: Is there any sort of correlation between the study of safety in software in avionics and and the study of safety in software in automobiles?  

I mean, are we (historically speaking) repeating ourselves? - The first as tragedy, the second as farce?  

bob s

rps_at_xxxxxx

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Received on Fri Apr 15 2016 - 00:02:39 CEST

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