Re: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

From: Peter Bishop < >
Date: Mon, 18 Apr 2016 08:25:52 +0100


Re the practicality of testing, the important metric might be the number of *crashes* rather than fatalities. After all there are a lot of features inside the car that stop a crash escalating to a fatality (like seat belts and air bags). These won't go away if cars become driverless.

According to the Rand graph, we would need 1 million miles for a 95% confidence that the driverless car crash rate is a least as good as a driven one.
i.e. a fleet of 100 cars driving 10000 miles each for one year.

Peter Bishop
Adelard

On 14/04/2016 20:52, Robert Schaefer wrote:

> http://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/04/car-makers-cant-drive-their-way-to-safety-with-self-driving-cars/
> http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1478.html
>
> Question: Is there any sort of correlation between the study of safety
> in software in avionics and and the study of safety in software in
> automobiles?
>
> I mean, are we (historically speaking) repeating ourselves? - The first
> as tragedy, the second as farce?
>
> bob s
>
>
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Peter Bishop
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Received on Mon Apr 18 2016 - 09:26:02 CEST

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