Re: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

From: Daniel Grivicic < >
Date: Tue, 19 Apr 2016 08:18:31 +1000


Could this help?

Self-Driving Cars, Predictability, and Law

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2747491

Autonomous or “self-driving” cars are vehicles that can drive themselves without human supervision or input. Because of safety benefits that they will bring, autonomous vehicles are likely to become more common in our physical environment. Notably, for the first time, people will share physical spaces with computer-controlled machines that can both direct their own activities and that have considerable freedom of movement. This represents a distinct change from our current context. Today people share physical spaces either with machines that have freedom of movement but are controlled by people (e.g. automobiles), or with machines that are controlled by computers but highly constrained in their range of movement (e.g. elevators). The movements of today’s machines are thus broadly predictable. The free-ranging, computer-directed movement of autonomous vehicles is an entirely novel phenomenon that will challenge certain unarticulated assumptions in our existing legal structure.

Problematically, the movements of autonomous vehicles may be less predictable to the ordinary people who will share their physical environment — such as pedestrians — than the comparable movements of human-driven vehicles. Today, a great deal of physical harm that might otherwise occur is likely avoided through humanity’s collective ability to predict the movements of others people. In anticipating the behavior of others, we employ what psychological call a “theory of mind.” Theory of mind cognitive mechanisms that allow us to extrapolate from our own internal mental states in order to estimate what others are thinking or likely to do. These cognitive systems allow us to make instantaneous, unconscious judgments about the likely actions of people around us, and therefore, to keep ourselves safe in the driving context. However, the theory-of-mind mechanisms that allow us to accurately model the minds of other people and interpret their communicative signals of attention and intention will be challenged in the context of non-human, autonomous moving entities such as self-driving cars.

This article explains in detail how self-driving vehicles work and how their movements may be hard to predict. It then explores the role that law might play in fostering more predictable autonomous moving systems such as self-driving cars, robots, and drones.

On Tue, Apr 19, 2016 at 7:01 AM, Matthew Squair <mattsquair_at_xxxxxx wrote:

> More that I don't see the value of multi million trip test programs that
> others might. ;)
>
> Matthew Squair
>
> MIEAust, CPEng
> Mob: +61 488770655
> Email; Mattsquair_at_xxxxxx > Web: http://criticaluncertainties.com
>
> On 18 Apr 2016, at 10:13 PM, Peter Bernard Ladkin <
> ladkin_at_xxxxxx >
>
>
> On 2016-04-18 14:03 , Matthew Squair wrote:
>
> But I'd personally be comfortable after a couple of months of realistic
> road trials.
>
>
> Hey, folks, we gotta volunteer!......... How you gonna line all those
> companies up, Matthew? :-)
>
> PBL
>
> Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of
> Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
> Je suis Charlie
> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319 www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de
>
>
>
>
>
>
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systemsafety_at_xxxxxx Received on Tue Apr 19 2016 - 00:18:39 CEST

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