Re: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

From: Gergely Buday < >
Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2016 15:48:03 +0200


Is there any research towards cars that communicate to each other, to avoid collisions, no matter being autonomous or not?

On Tuesday, 19 April 2016, Daniel Grivicic <grivsta_at_xxxxxx

> Could this help?
>
> Self-Driving Cars, Predictability, and Law
>
> http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2747491
>
> Autonomous or “self-driving” cars are vehicles that can drive themselves
> without human supervision or input. Because of safety benefits that they
> will bring, autonomous vehicles are likely to become more common in our
> physical environment. Notably, for the first time, people will share
> physical spaces with computer-controlled machines that can both direct
> their own activities and that have considerable freedom of movement. This
> represents a distinct change from our current context. Today people share
> physical spaces either with machines that have freedom of movement but are
> controlled by people (e.g. automobiles), or with machines that are
> controlled by computers but highly constrained in their range of movement
> (e.g. elevators). The movements of today’s machines are thus broadly
> predictable. The free-ranging, computer-directed movement of autonomous
> vehicles is an entirely novel phenomenon that will challenge certain
> unarticulated assumptions in our existing legal structure.
>
> Problematically, the movements of autonomous vehicles may be less
> predictable to the ordinary people who will share their physical
> environment — such as pedestrians — than the comparable movements of
> human-driven vehicles. Today, a great deal of physical harm that might
> otherwise occur is likely avoided through humanity’s collective ability to
> predict the movements of others people. In anticipating the behavior of
> others, we employ what psychological call a “theory of mind.” Theory of
> mind cognitive mechanisms that allow us to extrapolate from our own
> internal mental states in order to estimate what others are thinking or
> likely to do. These cognitive systems allow us to make instantaneous,
> unconscious judgments about the likely actions of people around us, and
> therefore, to keep ourselves safe in the driving context. However, the
> theory-of-mind mechanisms that allow us to accurately model the minds of
> other people and interpret their communicative signals of attention and
> intention will be challenged in the context of non-human, autonomous moving
> entities such as self-driving cars.
>
> This article explains in detail how self-driving vehicles work and how
> their movements may be hard to predict. It then explores the role that law
> might play in fostering more predictable autonomous moving systems such as
> self-driving cars, robots, and drones.
>
> On Tue, Apr 19, 2016 at 7:01 AM, Matthew Squair <mattsquair_at_xxxxxx > <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','mattsquair_at_xxxxxx >
>> More that I don't see the value of multi million trip test programs that
>> others might. ;)
>>
>> Matthew Squair
>>
>> MIEAust, CPEng
>> Mob: +61 488770655
>> Email; Mattsquair_at_xxxxxx >> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','Mattsquair_at_xxxxxx >> Web: http://criticaluncertainties.com
>>
>> On 18 Apr 2016, at 10:13 PM, Peter Bernard Ladkin <
>> ladkin_at_xxxxxx >> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','ladkin_at_xxxxxx >>
>>
>>
>> On 2016-04-18 14:03 , Matthew Squair wrote:
>>
>> But I'd personally be comfortable after a couple of months of realistic
>> road trials.
>>
>>
>> Hey, folks, we gotta volunteer!......... How you gonna line all those
>> companies up, Matthew? :-)
>>
>> PBL
>>
>> Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of
>> Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
>> Je suis Charlie
>> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319 www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
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>>
>



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