Re: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

From: Martyn Thomas < >
Date: Thu, 21 Apr 2016 18:20:00 +0200


Two issues.

1 Recertification after software change. Or do we just accept the huge attack surface that a fleet of AVs presents?

2 The way in which AVs could change the safety of the total road transport system. Is anyone studying total accidents rather than AV accidents?

Regards

Martyn

> On 21 Apr 2016, at 17:47, Mike Ellims <michael.ellims_at_xxxxxx >
> > This approach might be « safe ». I guess nobody has experience on this type of process.
>
> Mobileye has been around since 1999, Google have been letting cars drive themselves since 2009; I suspect they have probably got some experience by now. You would certainly hope so!
>
> > Whatever, it seems to have no intersection with the concept of satisfying safety requirements.
>
> That is possibly true at the top level for the complete system where some sort of statistical criteria may be more appropriate. However at the subsystem level I think that quite a number, or perhaps all of the principles laid out in IEC 16508 and ISO 26262 probably carry across quite well e.g. safety goals/requirements for system architecture attributes such as fail silent/fail active, warning and degradation concept etc. At lower levels requirements on the software for the inference engine design and code and requirements are applicable. For hardware concepts such as safe failure fraction, failure detection percentage etc. would also be applicable.
>
> While having a dig around the interweb for information on Google’s self driving cars and the validation process I came across the following summary of drivers disengagements which gives a little insight into the process being used by Google and may be of interest and simulate further discussion.
>
> https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/www.google.com/en//selfdrivingcar/files/reports/report-annual-15.pdf
>
>
> From: RICQUE Bertrand (SAGEM DEFENSE SECURITE) [mailto:bertrand.ricque_at_xxxxxx > Sent: 21 April 2016 15:12
> To: Mike Ellims; 'Bielefield Safety List'
> Cc: systemsafety-bounces_at_xxxxxx > Subject: RE: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?
>
> This approach might be « safe ». I guess nobody has experience on this type of process.
>
> Whatever, it seems to have no intersection with the concept of satisfying safety requirements.
>
> Bertrand Ricque
> Program Manager
> Optronics and Defence Division
> Sights Program
> Mob : +33 6 87 47 84 64
> Tel : +33 1 58 11 96 82
> Bertrand.ricque_at_xxxxxx >
> From: Mike Ellims [mailto:michael.ellims_at_xxxxxx > Sent: Thursday, April 21, 2016 3:35 PM
> To: RICQUE Bertrand (SAGEM DEFENSE SECURITE); 'Bielefield Safety List'
> Cc: systemsafety-bounces_at_xxxxxx > Subject: RE: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?
>
> Bertrand Ricque wrote
>
> > Safety critical software is not a question of time. It is a question of hunting bugs, in particular in uneasy access corners,
> > using dedicated methodologies, techniques and tools.
>
> That is true only up to a point, doing a bit of digging it seems that the majority of these systems are built on machine learning systems, so how you train them is going to be a large part of how “dependable” they are. Thus even if the code that implements the systems neural network is perfect and is totally bug free (see below) the “dependability” of the final system is on how good the training and testing sets are which in turn is dependent on how many real world situations you can accumulate and present to the system.
>
> Hence Google’s approach of running around lots of cars to get as much information about road configurations, behaviour of other vehicles, issues (e.g. road signs obscured by bushes) as possible which they can then combine with their humongous database of all the worlds roads.
>
> Tesla appears to uses a vision system from Mobileye, who’s website states on their planning systems;
>
> <snip> First, we apply supervised learning for predicting the near future based on the present. We require that the predictor will be
> differentiable with respect to the representation of the present. Second, we model a full trajectory of the agent using a
> recurrent neural network, where unexplained factors are modeled as (additive) input nodes. <snip>
>
>
>
> From: systemsafety [mailto:systemsafety-bounces_at_xxxxxx > Sent: 21 April 2016 13:37
> To: Bielefield Safety List
> Cc: systemsafety-bounces_at_xxxxxx > Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?
>
> Safety critical software is not a question of time. It is a question of hunting bugs, in particular in uneasy access corners, using dedicated methodologies, techniques and tools.
>
> Say that you forgot to take into account in your software the fact that every 100 years bissextile years are not as every 4 years, you will never find it whatever the number of kilometres, cars and hours you use the system between 2001 and 2099…
>
> And whatever the good performance of your system during 99 years, there will be absolutely zero excuse for the consequent accidents …
>
> A good way to challenge the designers of such systems would be to make their children responsible for the damages …
>
> Bertrand Ricque
> Program Manager
> Optronics and Defence Division
> Sights Program
> Mob : +33 6 87 47 84 64
> Tel : +33 1 58 11 96 82
> Bertrand.ricque_at_xxxxxx >
> From: systemsafety [mailto:systemsafety-bounces_at_xxxxxx > Sent: Thursday, April 21, 2016 2:27 PM
> To: Matthew Squair
> Cc: Bielefield Safety List
> Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?
>
> This report has just come to my attention. Stats based and an interesting read as it addresses most of the points made on this thread in one way or another:
>
> http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1478.html
>
> Nick Tudor
> Tudor Associates Ltd
> Mobile: +44(0)7412 074654
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> On 18 April 2016 at 22:01, Matthew Squair <mattsquair_at_xxxxxx > More that I don't see the value of multi million trip test programs that others might. ;)
>
> Matthew Squair
>
> MIEAust, CPEng
> Mob: +61 488770655
> Email; Mattsquair_at_xxxxxx > Web: http://criticaluncertainties.com
>
> On 18 Apr 2016, at 10:13 PM, Peter Bernard Ladkin <ladkin_at_xxxxxx >
>
>
> On 2016-04-18 14:03 , Matthew Squair wrote:
>
> But I'd personally be comfortable after a couple of months of realistic road trials.
>
> Hey, folks, we gotta volunteer!......... How you gonna line all those companies up, Matthew? :-)
>
> PBL
>
> Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
> Je suis Charlie
> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319 www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de
>
>
>
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